Jobs will grow in 2010, but then what?

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Despite modest January job losses the good news for job seekers is that after a brutal recession that swallowed stimulus packages whole with barely a burp, the business cycle is finally your friend in 2010. The reason the economy on Main Street feels so dismal is that while the revival is well underway, sustained job growth hasn't happened yet. Just like when you take a headlong dive into the deep end of a pool, you kick off the bottom and start climbing quickly, but there's the inevitable moment of doubt just before you break the surface.

With 5.7% GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2009, following 2.2% in the third quarter, this recovery is already stronger than the last two. We are also on the cusp of sustained positive job growth only a couple of quarters after the end of recession. That's just one-third of the 21 months it took for job growth to resume after the 2001 recession.

Still, recovering is a far cry from recovered. And while the economy will certainly get better in 2010, the real problem is the long-term outlook for jobs.

Since World War II, there has been a clear easing pattern in the trend rate of economic growth during expansions, culminating in the 2001-07 expansion, which showed the slowest average growth on record -- especially in terms of jobs. Meanwhile, the "great moderation" of business cycles once extolled by many economists, including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, is history. Few expect that, following a vicious economic downturn and gigantic amounts of stimulus, the economy will coast smoothly back to moderate and steady growth. Rather, such extremes are likely to boost business cycle volatility.

The convergence of these two trends -- the shriveling strength of expansions and bigger cyclical volatility -- virtually dictates more frequent recessions punctuated by shorter expansions. In plain English, business cycles are back with a vengeance.